Forecasting desk
Forecasts, argued in the open.
Two official series, downloaded from BLS and the ECB. Six ballots forecast 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. The number is the median.
2Series
4Horizons
6Ballots
Signal
What the tape is carrying
Read from the public tape.
Loading the tape.
The book
Standing calls
Oracle
Ask something that can be wrong.
A consult runs only when you send it. Nothing on this page spends a model call.
Open the oracleThe book stays put
An active call is not rewritten. When its horizon passes, a draft verdict waits on the Desk until a person accepts it.
Read the method